您現在的位置:首頁 > 資料下載 > 現在距離《世界能源展望(WEO)》最近一次深入調查中國能源領域的未來 前景已經過去10年。2007年,中國已經占據全球能源市場的前端和中心地位,但 那時中國離我們現在所看到的能源大國仍有一定的距離。今
                                                          現在距離《世界能源展望(WEO)》最近一次深入調查中國能源領域的未來 前景已經過去10年。2007年,中國已經占據全球能源市場的前端和中心地位,但 那時中國離我們現在所看到的能源大國仍有一定的距離。今

                                                          現在距離《世界能源展望(WEO)》最近一次深入調查中國能源領域的未來 前景已經過去10年。2007年,中國已經占據全球能源市場的前端和中心地位,但 那時中國離我們現在所看到的能源大國仍有一定的距離。今

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                                                          發布日期: 10-08
                                                          更新日期: 10-08
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                                                        1. 本文件為PDF文檔.現在距離《世界能源展望(WEO)》最近一次深入調查中國能源領域的未來 前景已經過去10年。2007年,中國已經占據全球能源市場的前端和中心地位,但 那時中國離我們現在所看到的能源大國仍有一定的距離。今
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                                                        3. China is in a period of development and transformation, and its energy prospects will be vastly different from those of the past. Over the years, people's descriptions of China's energy situation mainly emphasize how amazing the pace of China's development is, how successfully China has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, and how eager China is for all kinds of energy, mainly coal and oil. These views are still valid, but China is speeding up the transformation of its development mode to a service-based economy and a cleaner energy structure. Compared with the early energy intensive development, the impact of the new development direction on China and the world is equally important. Under the new policy scenario, China's energy demand growth rate has dropped to about 1% per year, less than one sixth of the country's annual average since 2000. This is a comprehensive effect brought about by the transformation of economic structure, the implementation of strong energy efficiency policies and population changes. By 2040, the growth level of total energy demand will be basically the same as that of 2008-2016. As the economy continues to grow rapidly, the average growth rate is 4.5% per year, equivalent to 3.4% improvement in energy intensity per year. According to our forecast, this is the fastest improvement rate in the world by 2040. By 2040, China's per capita energy consumption will also increase by a quarter, surpassing that of the EU around 2035. China's growing energy demand is increasingly dependent on renewable energy, natural gas and electricity, while coal demand has fallen. The growth of electricity and renewable energy demand is closely related to the diversification and cleaning of China's energy structure. By 2040, coal's share of total power generation will fall from two-thirds in 2016 to less than 40%. The growth of electricity and natural gas demand is closely related to the industrial and civil sectors, because these energy sources meet the energy demand of the light industry sector and meet the growing demand for air quality. China also applies biomass energy to industry, uses solar energy for heating and uses biofuels for transportation, thus increasing the direct use of renewable energy in the end consumer industry. By 2040, electricity will dominate China's end energy consumption, surpassing coal by the late 1920s and oil soon thereafter. By 2040, the demand for natural gas will rise to more than 600 billion cubic meters, making China the second largest natural gas market in the world after the United States, and the main source of global natural gas demand growth: during this period, the share of natural gas in China's main energy structure will rise from less than 6% to more than 12%. At the same time, with coal-fired power generation peaking and the structural decline in heavy industry coal and residential heating coal, China's coal demand will eventually be far below 2016 levels. Coal's share of China's primary energy mix will shrink by 20 percentage points to about 45% by 2040. China has become the largest oil consumer in the world, but it is no longer the main source of the growth of world oil demand. China is the main force in the oil market. The gap between the average daily demand of 11.5 million barrels and the average daily output of 4 million barrels in 2016 makes China the largest oil importer in the world. By 2030, the continued growth in transportation fuel demand means that China will replace the United States as the world's largest oil consumer. By then, China's oil demand growth will tend to moderate, and India is expected to become the main source of global oil consumption growth after 2025. By 2040, the growth of China's passenger car ownership will slow down, a quarter of the cars will be electric vehicles, and strict fuel economy indicators will limit the consumption of oil by other vehicles. China's passenger car fuel consumption is expected to decline after 2030.

                                                          中國正處在發展變革時期,其能源前景將與過去有著天壤之別。多年來, 大家對中國能源狀況的描述主要是強調中國的發展步伐有多么驚人、中國是如何 成功讓億萬群眾擺脫貧困,以及中國對各種能源,主要是煤炭和石油是多么的渴 求。這些觀點現在仍然有效,但是中國正在加快發展方式的轉變,向以服務為基 礎的經濟和更清潔的能源結構邁進。與早期的能源密集型發展相比,新的發展方 向對中國和世界帶來的影響同樣重要。 在新政策情景下,中國的能源需求增長速度下降到每年1%左右,不到該國 自2000年以來的年平均水平的六分之一。這是經濟結構轉變、強勁能源效率政 策實施和人口變化所帶來的綜合效應。到2040年,能源需求總量的增長水平將 與2008年至2016年這八年期間的增長水平基本持平。由于經濟繼續快速增長,平 均增長率為每年4.5%,相當于能源強度每年改善3.4%,據我們預測,這是截至 2040年世界范圍內最快的改善速度。到2040年,中國人均能源消費量也將增長四 分之一,將在2035年左右超越歐盟。 中國日益增長的能源需求正越來越多地依賴可再生能源、天然氣和電力;而 煤炭需求有所回落。電力和可再生能源需求的增長與中國能源結構的多樣化和清 潔化密切相關。到2040年,煤炭在總發電量中所占份額將從2016年的三分之二降 到40%以下。電力和天然氣需求的增長與工業和民用部門是密切相關的,因為這 些能源滿足了輕工業部門的能源需求又契合了人們對空氣質量日益增長的要求。 中國還將生物質應用到工業中,將太陽能用于供暖以及運用生物燃料運輸,從 而增加終端消費行業對可再生能源的直接利用。到2040年,電力將在中國的終端 能源消費中占據主導地位,到21世紀20年代后期超過煤炭,此后不久將會超過石油。到2040年,天然氣需求量將上升到6000億立方米以上,使中國成為僅次于美 國的全球第二大天然氣市場,也是全球天然氣需求增長的最主要來源:在此期 間,天然氣在中國主要能源結構中的份額將從不到6%上升至12%以上。與此同 時,隨著燃煤發電的發電量達到峰值,以及重工業用煤和居民供熱用煤出現結構 性下滑,中國的煤炭需求最終將遠低于2016年的水平。煤炭在中國一次能源結構 中的份額將縮減20個百分點,到2040年約為45%。 中國成為世界上最大的石油消費國,但不再是世界石油需求增長的最主要來 源。中國是石油市場的主力軍,2016年1150萬桶的日均需求量和400萬桶的日均 產量之間的差距,使中國成為世界上最大的石油進口國。到2030年,運輸燃料需 求的持續增長意味著中國將取代美國成為世界上最大的石油消費國。到那時,中 國的石油需求增長將趨于平緩,預計到2025年以后,印度將成為全球石油消費增 長的主要來源。到2040年,中國的乘用車保有量的增長將減緩,四分之一的汽車 將是電動車,嚴格的燃油經濟性指標將限制其他車輛對油品的消費。預計中國的 乘用車油耗將在2030年后下滑。

                                                          天天操天天干